Sometimes it’s a certain number of people per year - usually, in the hundreds - and where those people are killed directly by violent clashes between those armed organized factions. In academic work, civil war is generally defined as a violent conflict between two organized, armed groups within a country that kills at least 1,000 people. When anybody asks “Is it going to happen?” my first response is, “What do you mean by civil war?” The answer depends tremendously on that. ULFELDER: I’m glad you asked the definitional question. GAZETTE: First, how is civil war defined today? Second, is the country heading down this road? The interview has been edited for clarity and length. Currently a fellow at the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at Harvard Kennedy School, he spoke with the Gazette about the prospect of civil war in the U.S. government-funded program that helps policymakers understand and anticipate political crises around the globe. Jay Ulfelder is a political scientist who studies civil wars and former research director of the Political Instability Task Force, a U.S. But are we really on the brink of armed conflict or is it just that the political vitriol makes it feel that way? In late December, a survey by The Washington Post and the University of Maryland revealed that one in three Americans think that violence against the government is sometimes justified. A Zogby poll in the fall found that 46 percent of Americans think the country is headed for another civil war. With extremist movements and rhetoric on the rise, a growing number of people, including some historians and many opinion writers, believe the U.S. Capitol prepares for televised hearings later this month, public attitudes toward the attack are divided sharply along partisan lines. As the House Select Committee investigating the Jan.
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